ACC Market &Technology - Excerpt

	Summary

	This report forecasts the rapidly growing markets for Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and ACC components, describes current programs of leading ACC vendors and users, and highlights the impact on associated systems.
	Reason for the Report
	According to NHTSA (National Highway and Traffic Safety Agency), 72% of tractor-trailers will be in a serious, costly accident. Most of these are preventable - road run-off - 27% - rear-end collisions - 25% - lane change/merge - 15% - drowsy driver - 4 %
	Rear-end collisions for cars represent 28% of all vehicle collisions and 36% of fatal and injury collisions. NHTSA estimates that 88% of these are caused by driver inattention or by vehicles following too closely.
	Based on four years of data from US fleets of tractor-trailers, collision warning systems from Eaton Vorad have reduced total preventable accidents by an average of either 70% (Eaton Vorad) or 50% (NHTSA). Incredibly, most fleets report 100% reduction in accidents (Table 4).
	Table 4. Case studies of accident reduction (source Eaton Vorad) Note that five fleets reported 100% accident reduction.
	Can this astounding success with heavy trucks be repeated with passenger cars?
	Anticipating "Yes", every major carmaker is preparing to introduce Adaptive Cruise Control, a step beyond Collision Warning.
	While Eaton Vorad dominates Collision Warning systems for trucks, new suppliers are entering the market for cars. Each supplier has a different twist on ACC technology, generally based on deep understanding of radar hardware and software. Patent applications (Chapter 9) reveal a diverse spectrum of problems and solutions.
	In 1997, when problems with laser-based systems from Japan were revealed, many European car companies began to redesign their systems with microwave radar.
	This market report
	- reveals the outstanding - develops a world market forecast of Adaptive Cruise Control for cars, light trucks and heavy trucks - reviews alliances and strategies of principal car and truck makers - surveys suppliers and significant design wins - describes underlying technologies and new directions - looks at proposed industry standards
	System Definition
	Collision Warning (CW) is the original term for forward and side radar systems which alert the driver but do not control engine speed.
	Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) is the most widely used term for forward-looking laser or radar systems which automatically change engine speed and optionally apply brakes.
	Other names encountered in researching this report include:
	- Intelligent Cruise Control - Radar Cruise Control - Collision Warning System - Collision Avoidance System - Headway Control System - Smart Cruise - Eaton Ward - Distronic - Daimler - Autocruise - Autocruise
	ACC requires a digital signal processor (DSP) and substantial memory to filter, convolute and refine microwave echoes into a coherent, stable picture of the forward environment. A microprocessor compares DSP output of distances and closing speeds with desired conditions. Anticipating an out-of-normal condition, it then advises some combination of:
	- the engine controller to retard or speed the engine toward the desired result; - the ABS controller to apply or release the brakes toward the desired result; - the airbag controller to prepare for an impact, giving the expected time, direction and severity; - the driver to take action, giving a combination of sounds, warning lights and vibration.
	In addition, CW and ACC systems for heavy trucks capture and store certain major events for analysis by fleet operators, who are generally self-insured. In Europe, most heavy trucks already gather and store operational data.
	ACC Enhancements represent systems which build upon ACC to further reduce accidents and increase occupant safety. These include side radar, infrared cameras, optical cameras, close-in laser scanning, platoon communication and radar image reconstruction.
	- Side radar offers proven advantages for reducing lane-change accidents and giving advance warning to side airbags. - Future digital signal processing chips will extract real-time images from radar or laser reflections to improve poor visibility.
	Techniques for displaying a forward image include:
	- reflecting a 2D image from a back-lit LCD screen off the front window, - projecting a virtual 3D image on special eye goggles which sense and compensate for head position, and - directly writing a 3D image on each retina with a low-power scanning laser mounted to special goggles.
	Market Forecast
	The world market for Adaptive Cruise Control and Collision Warning systems will grow exponentially from $13 million in 1998 to $3.3 billion in 2010 (Figure 1). This represents a major new development in automotive electronics.
	Figure 1. ACC world market.
	Average installation rates will be highest on heavy trucks, followed by cars and light trucks (Figure 2). By 2010, roughly 40% of all vehicles will have some form of ACC.
	Figure 2. ACC installation rate.
	Annual installations will climb exponentially through 2010, starting from 8,000 in 1998. (Figure 3).
	Figure 3. ACC installations.

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