| Mountain View, CA -
The world market for automotive Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) -
a "smart" device that automatically maintains driver-selected headway
interval between vehicles - will see exponential growth in the years
to come, according to a study just completed by TIER ONE, a leading
automotive electronics market research firm in Mountain View, Calif.
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| Although selectable
cruise control has been around since the 1960s, until now it has
been mechanical in nature; hence the speed set is constant, without
regard for ambient traffic conditions -- density, speed or headway
distance. |
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| By contrast, first
generation adaptive cruise control will monitor the headway interval
and provide audible warning or slow the vehicle when the gap narrows
to be considered dangerous. Next generation or "Intelligent" systems,
once set, will maintain a safe distance. Vehicular speed is governed
accordingly by throttle and brake control. |
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| The copyrighted 227-page
report, the first to be published on the subject, is titled "Adaptive
Cruise Control Market." |
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| In it TIER ONE forecasts
that the global market for first generation ACC will peak at $810
million in 2007. More important, when combined with two related
systems - collision warning (CW) and headway control (HC) - ACC
will reach $2.4 billion by 2010, a twenty fold increase from where
it stood in 1998. |
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| "ACC (adaptive cruise
control), integrated with ABS (anti-lock braking system) will be
the next major vehicle safety enhancement. Its potential to reduce
accidents is well documented within the trucking industry where
ACC is currently being used." said Morris Kindig, president of TIER
ONE. |
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| "The data we have collected
and analyzed indicate that factory installations of the three sister
systems -- ACC, CW and HC -- will grow to 17 percent in Europe,
14 percent in Asia-Pacific, and 13 percent in North America, by
year 2006." he noted. |
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| By contrast, the market
for ACC this past calendar year consisted of "a small volume of
laser-based systems for Japan-only executive cars." In addition,
the report reveals a growing North American market for ACC with
CW in tractor-trailers and long-distance buses. |
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| The study points out
that in Europe, radio frequency based radar ACC is being introduced
on a handful of high-end automobiles and tractor-trailers, while
in Japan an infrared light based lidar ACC is on selected luxury
sedans. |
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| "Fleet buyers of heavy
trucks are way ahead in this industry initiative," said Stuart Harris,
principal author of the report and director of research at TIER
ONE, "because of a proven reduction in accident rate with CW." By
2004, he added, 14 percent of heavy trucks will be equipped with
ACC-CW systems. |
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| Within five years the
installation rate will reach 9 percent for passenger cars and 4
percent for light trucks, the report projects. "By 2004," noted
Harris, "the more technically advanced system known as headway control
(HC) will have come to market. ACC-HC is superior in that it operates
over the entire speed range." |
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| (Technical note: With
standard ACC, maximum automatic acceleration and deceleration are
limited to 0.3G, and minimum operating speed is 35 miles per hour,
the same as for standard cruise control.) |
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| TIER ONE projects further
that by 2010, 20 percent of all new vehicles - light trucks plus
passenger cars in all classes -- will be equipped at the factory
with either ACC-CW or HC. |
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| TIER ONE predicts the
average selling price of an ACC system to the automaker will be
$99 in 2006, declining 13 percent for every doubling of cumulative
sales volume from 1999. |
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| As the installation
rate accelerates, prices will fall. TIER ONE predicts the average
selling price of an ACC system to the automaker will be $99 in 2006,
declining 13 percent for every doubling of cumulative sales volume
from 1999. |
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| ACC range finders use
either millimeter-wave radar or laser-based lidar. The first experimental
radar ACC was installed by Lucas on a 1971 Ford Zodiac sedan. The
first commercial lidar ACC was installed on Toyota's Progres beginning
in May of 1998; the first commercial radar version was on DaimlerChrysler's
Mercedes-Benz S-class sedans beginning in 1999. Both technologies
are determined by TIER ONE to be undergoing rapid reduction in size,
cost and complexity. As evidence of this, four new companies have
been formed in Europe to design, manufacture and market ACC. |
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| The report forecasts
installation rates segmented by vehicle class, automaker and system
type. Implementation timetables, covers both complete systems and
individual components. ACC programs for principal manufacturers
are identified and examined, together with those for manufacturers
of heavy trucks. Forty supplier companies are reviewed with assessments
on ACC, CW and HC systems technologies and citations on pertinent
research programs, regulations and patents. |
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| For more information
about this and other automotive research, or to obtain a copy of
the report contact TIER ONE directly. Telephone 650-424-1234, e-mail
info@tierone.com or visit the website at tierone.com. |
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