Automotive
Sensors Market Report
- Excerpt
Executive Summary
Overview
Propelled by legislated safety and environmental requirements as well
as a consumer market demanding safer, cleaner, and more reliable vehicles,
the North American Automotive Sensor Market is forecast to exceed 500
million units, with revenues of more than $2.7 billion, by 2003. Revenues
show a compound growth rate of more than 6 percent from 1994 to 2003,
significantly greater than the vehicle growth rate forecast of 2.4 percent
over the same period.
The Automotive sensor market is a study in extremes. While vehicle
systems ever increasingly rely on sophisticated electronic controls,
broad application of many advanced systems, such as active suspension
systems, has not occurred, or, as is the case with micromachined airbag
accelerometers, has developed much more slowly than was predicted just
a few years ago. Many core applications that used mature technologies,
such as electromechanical oil pressure switches, were predicted to be
replaced by multifunction silicon sensors. Instead, vehicle manufacturers
have adapted the vehicle system to the limitations of the mature device
and, through manufacturing and design improvements, have lowered component
and system cost. Mature technologies are, in many cases, more entrenched
than ever. Electromechanical airbag accelerometers, throttle position
sensors, and climate control pressure switches, all once predicted to
lose market share to new technologies by the mid 1990s, are still dominant.
While Continuing to use mature technologies, vehicle manufacturers
are increasing the sophistication of the electronic systems used in
their products. General Motors and Ford will soon introduce 31-bit engine
controllers, BMW offers an ultrasonic proximity sensor to assist vehicle
operators in tight parking situations, and many manufacturers clamor
for chemical sensors to provide real-time analysis of exhaust fumes
and determine the concentration of hydrocarbons in fuel vapor recovery
systems.
This study forecasts entrenched technologies as well as the technologies
that may replace them, a total of fifty-one sensor applications in all,
plus four primary emerging technology application areas that may be
next generation high technology applications. Particular attention has
been given to developing the vehicle manufacturer's rationale in the
selection process. What might appear to be inconsistent or contrary
from a supplier's of the vehicle manufacturer. When circumstances dictate
that vehicle manufacturer's choices are influenced by factors other
than price or performance, the rationale for these decisions is discussed
as completely as possible. Since this study is based primarily on personal
interviews, there can be a significant variance in data. Because of
the proprietary nature of the market, industry sources often cannot
freely discuss program direction or the application of new technologies.
As a result much information is developed through a combination of sources.
Market Segmentation
Two sensor market segmentation methods, shown below, are used in North
American Vehicle Sensor Market. Chapter 4 forecasts sensors by type
and discusses the possible evolution of related technologies. Chapters
5 through 10 forecast sensors by operating system application.
| Segmentation by Type |
Segmentation by Application |
| Motion and Position Sensors |
Core Applications |
| Pressure Sensors |
Powertrain Management |
| Acceleration and Yaw Rate Sensors |
Braking and Traction Management |
| Fluid Level Sensors |
Chassis Management |
| Temperature Sensors |
Occupant Protection |
| Other Sensor Types |
Climate Control and Convenience |
| (misfire, exhaust) |
|
An understanding of the operating system and how each sensor is used
provides a fuller perspective into the criteria for sensor selection.
A discussion of the sensing needs and rationale behind each vehicle
system is included, with particular attention to the various approaches
taken by different vehicle manufacturers.
Figure 1-1 shows the relative trends by sensor type over the forecast
period. Other Sensor Types which, in 2003, include exhaust gas
oxygen, spark ionization misfire, and hydrocarbon vapor sensors, are
the largest growth segment with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of more than 18 percent. The addition of new sensor types over the forecast
period is primarily responsible for the growth.
The Acceleration segment shows the greatest decline. This decline results
from the replacement of two costly electromechanical crash sensors with
one silicon micromachined accelerometer in most airbag systems. The
acceleration segment has a CAGR of -3.3 percent.
The declining revenues associated with accelerometers are shown in
Figure 1-2, Trends by System Application, as Occupant Protection Systems
experience a decline from $465 million(28 percent) in 1994 to a revenue
low of $352 million in 1999 and a share low of 15.1 percent in 2000.
The advent of silicon micromachined accelerometers is the reason for
this decline. The increased market penetration of side impact sensors
overcomes the rend, as revenues for the segment rebound to $465 million
in 2003 (16.5 percent).
Figure 1-1 Trends by Sensor Type Percent Percent by
Revenues
Powertrain applications experience the greatest revenue
growth though as a percentage of share, the growth segment is Chassis
Management with a CAGR of 13.5 percent. Chassis Management is 4.7 percent
of the total market in 2003, a significant increase in share from 1.5
percent in 1994. By the end of the decade, vehicle dynamic control systems
will be offered on many luxury and near-luxury vehicles. Additional
growth in this segment will result from load management systems on many
family vans.
As expected, growth of the powertrain segment is primarily
in response to tighter emission control requirements. Revenues grow
from $640 million in 1994 to more than $1.4 billion in 2003.
Figure 1-2 Trends by System Application Revenue Share
of Total Market
Emerging Technologies
Chapter 11, Emerging Technologies, attempts to look into the
near future at what technologies are under development and assess the
likelihood of their application.
During the first half of this decade, Intelligent Transportation Systems
(ITS, previously referred to as IVHS - Intelligent Vehicle / Highway
Systems ) generated considerable interest, particularly among manufacturers
interested in defense conversion. These systems may add considerable
electronics content to vehicles and highway/transit infrastructure.
However, the emergence of these systems beyond the test phase has not
yet occurred Demonstration systems funded by the Intermodal Surface
Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 have not yet become fully operational.
Successful development efforts have focused on automation systems for
improving vehicle flow, such as automatic toll collection and billing,.
This chapter recognizes the reality that the communications devices
often mentioned as components of intelligent transportation systems
will be part of highway infrastructure before they are a major presence
on vehicles, notwithstanding recently introduced Lincoln and Cadillac
emergency cellular phone and global positioning systems. For this reason,
ITS/IVHS plays a small role in Emerging Technologies.
* * * *
Generally, reports of this nature have overestimated the
market for new technologies and increased vehicle sensor content. Forecasts
of increased sensor applications related to suspension systems and climate
control systems, particularly with the change to R134a refrigerant,
are typical examples. Significant information for these reports is obtained
from interviews. As a result, an overestimation of the market resulting
from an enthusiastic endorsement of a technology or feature is not surprising,
particularly if "top-down" forecasting is used.
This report takes a "bottoms-up" rather than
top-down approach to the forecast. This report investigates many systems,
sensors, and every vehicle produced in North America. Platform changes
(shown in the Appendix) were used as critical events that change many
subsystems, igniting changes in sensor content. This approach considers
the evolutionary growth of applications and technologies in this industry.
Each manufacturer will be experiment with new technologies in different
applications and vehicles. Readers should gain an appreciation not only
for "the numbers" but for the factors behind the numbers,
since an understanding of the logic and rationale for sensor applications
will remain when the numbers are gone.
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